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ผู้เชี่ยวชาญคาดราคาก่อสร้างปี 57 ไม่ขยับ


อสังหาฯปี"57 ส่งสัญญาณชะลอตัว ปัจจัยหลักไม่เกิดภาวะแย่งวัสดุก่อสร้างทำราคาค่าก่อสร้างไม่ขยับ ผู้เชี่ยวชาญกังวลสถานการณ์ขาดแคลนแรงงานวิกฤติ


นายอัศวิน พิชญโยธิน ประธานคณะทำงานราคาก่อสร้าง และประธานที่ปรึกษาโรงเรียนธุรกิจอสังหาริมทรัพย์ไทย คาดการณ์แนวโน้มราคาก่อสร้างปี 2557 ว่าจะอยู่ในภาวะทรงตัวเช่นเดียวกับปี 2556 ที่มีอัตราเพิ่มขึ้น 2-3% เท่านั้น เนื่องจากปัจจัยการขยายตัวของธุรกิจอสังหาริมทรัพย์ที่อาจจะไม่เติบโตอย่างที่คาด ทำให้เกิดภาวะแย่งซื้อวัสดุก่อสร้างต่างๆ ลดลง

ปีนี้ดัชนีราคาวัสดุก่อสร้างเฉลี่ยปรับตัวเพิ่มขึ้น 0.9% แม้ที่ผ่านมาราคาวัสดุก่อสร้างบางรายการจะพุ่งขึ้นค่อนข้างสูง เช่น ซีเมนต์ และไม้ เพิ่มขึ้น 6% วัสดุฉาบผิวเพิ่มขึ้น 2.5% เหล็กและผลิตภัณฑ์จากเหล็กลดลง 6% เมื่อเทียบกับช่วงเดียวกันของปีที่ผ่านมา

ส่วนการปรับขึ้นค่าแรงขั้นต่ำเป็นวันละ 300 บาท จากระดับกว่า 200 บาทต่อวัน เขาเห็นว่าไม่ทำให้ค่าก่อสร้างโดยรวมปีนี้เพิ่มขึ้นมากนัก เพราะเมื่อพิจารณาจะพบว่า ค่าแรงคิดเป็น 25% ของราคาค่าก่อสร้างทั้งหมด หรือคิดเป็นต้นทุนที่เพิ่มขึ้นเพียง 2.5% เท่านั้น

"ทิศทางราคาวัสดุก่อสร้างปี 2557 คาดว่าจะไม่ปรับตัวเพิ่มขึ้นมากนัก เพราะเมื่อตลาดที่อยู่อาศัยมีความต้องการวัสดุก่อสร้างลดลงจะทำให้ราคาอ่อนตัวลง ส่วนการลงทุนโครงการขนาดใหญ่ 2 ล้านล้านบาท ที่ประเมินว่าจะส่งผลให้ราคาวัสดุก่อสร้างพุ่งขึ้น ก็ต้องจับตาดูสถานการณ์ทางการเมือง หากมีรัฐบาลใหม่ อาจเปลี่ยนแปลงนโยบายได้"

ส่วนการคาดการณ์เศรษฐกิจโลกจะฟื้นตัว จนส่งผลให้วัสดุก่อสร้างบางรายการ เช่น เหล็กปรับตัวสูงขึ้น เขาระบุว่า ไม่น่าจะเป็นเช่นนั้นเนื่องจากที่ผ่านมาจีนได้ก่อสร้างอาคารต่างๆ แล้วเสร็จ ทำให้ราคาเหล็กเริ่มปรับตัวลดลง ส่วนราคาปูนซีเมนต์ ขึ้นอยู่กับกลไกตลาดภายในประเทศ

อย่างไรก็ตาม สิ่งที่ต้องจับตามองว่าจะส่งผลกระทบต่อราคาวัสดุก่อสร้างปีหน้าคือทิศทางราคาพลังงานในตลาดโลกที่มีความผันผวนจนส่งผลกระทบต่อค่าขนส่งสินค้า

ขณะที่ ความกังวลในอุตสาหกรรมก่อสร้าง คือ ภาวะ "ขาดแคลนแรงงาน" ผลจากการขึ้นค่าแรงงาน 300 บาทต่อวัน แต่แรงงานฝีมือจ้างกันมากกว่า 500 บาทต่อวัน ทำให้ผู้รับเหมาหันไปใช้แรงงานต่างด้าวที่อยู่นอกระบบมากถึง 80%

ทั้งนี้ แม้ค่าแรงปีนี้จะพุ่งขึ้นมากแต่เมื่อพิจารณาผลประกอบการของบริษัทก่อสร้างยักษ์ใหญ่ พบว่า มีผลกำไรจากการลดภาษีนิติบุคคลจาก 23% เหลืออยู่ 20% ชดเชยต้นทุนค่าแรงได้ และมาตรการดังกล่าวยังหนุนให้บริษัทพัฒนาอสังหาริมทรัพย์ไม่ปรับราคาที่อยู่อาศัยเพิ่มขึ้น

ส่วนราคาที่ดินที่ปรับตัวสูงขึ้นนั้น ยอมรับว่ามีผลต่อราคาที่อยู่อาศัย แต่หากคำนวณเฉพาะราคาค่าก่อสร้าง จะพบว่าไม่กระทบราคาที่อยู่อาศัยในปีนี้

"ที่ดินที่ราคาแพง ส่วนใหญ่คือแปลงหรือทำเลที่มีศักยภาพเท่านั้น ส่วนทำเลที่ไม่มีศักยภาพ หรือติดปัญหากฎหมายผังเมือง ต่อให้อยู่ในเมืองราคาก็ไม่ขยับ เช่น ที่ดินย่านสุขุมวิททั้งเส้นในอดีตปี 2531 ราคา 3.5 หมื่นบาทต่อตารางวา และขยับเป็น 1 แสนบาทต่อตารางวาในปี 2533 ปัจจุบันซื้อขายกันตั้งแต่ 8 แสนถึงกว่า 1 ล้านบาทต่อตารางวา ซึ่งราคาที่ดินขึ้นอยู่กับความต้องการของผู้ซื้อและผู้ขาย"
ส่งหน้านี้ให้เพื่อน ที่มา : กรุงเทพธุรกิจ 02-01-2557 14:41:42
ความคิดเห็นที่ 9 แจ้งลบข้อคิดเห็นนี้
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ผู้แสดงความคิดเห็น  max  [ tar@stungun.ru ]  วันที่ 01-04-2561 22:52:37
 
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ผู้แสดงความคิดเห็น  myy  [ fy60601@163.com ]  วันที่ 15-03-2561 13:18:01
 
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